Coming Soon
October 6, 2025
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“Be like a duck. Calm on the surface, but always paddling like the dickens underneath.” - Michael Caine
“You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means.”
“Stagflation and Tariffs and Bears! Oh, My!” In the Wizard of Oz, when Dorothy, the Scarecrow and the Tin Man are venturing into the dark forest, they discuss what types of animals they might encounter. In fearing this unknown danger, they start singing “Lions and Tigers and Bears! Oh My!” This fear of the unknown has investors and markets a bit on edge as of late, given the aggressive and unorthodox approach the new administration has been utilizing to carry out promises made during the campaign. We will try to address some of these concerns and, as always, emphasize the long-term view and more of a focus on growth fundamentals, as the market ultimately returns to that. Concerns. #1 Stagflation. The Wikipedia definition of Stagflation is the combination of high inflation, stagnant economic growth and elevated unemployment. While in the very near term, the concerns about tariffs driving prices higher may be valid and the headlines around egg prices due to bird flu are pushing prices higher, there are more prices actually on the decline which we expect to continue, such as gasoline prices, consumer technology, used cars, eating away from home (fast casual and restaurants), clothing, toys and many other food items.